논문 국내 국내전문학술지(KCI급) 확산 모형에 의한 첨단 영상진단 의료기기 수요확산의 특성 분석 및 수요예측에 관한 연구
- 학술지 구분 국내전문학술지(KCI급)
- 게재년월 2022-02
- 저자명 김수범,임달오,김태구공동(참여)
- 학술지명 보건정보통계학회지
- 발행처명 한국보건정보통계학회
- 발행국가 국내
- 논문언어 외국어
- 전체저자수 3
홈페이지논문 초록 (Abstract)
Objectives: In this study, we explore the demand forecasting of Advanced Diagnostic imaging Equipment. Methods: The analysis was based on logistic diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment’s diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of logistic diffusion model. Results: Our findings are follows. First, Computed tomography is in the stage of saturation and so, the future demands of that is not too large. Second, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is expected that it will take about 5 years to reach saturation, and further growth is expected to continue. Third, Positron emission tomography (PET) has been shown to be saturated, and therefore, it is not expected that there will be a rapid increase in demand in the future. However, since demand data has been declining since 2000, it is said that additional data collection is required to reliably predict future demand. Conclusions: As a result of analyzing the demand for three major advanced diagnostic imaging equipment, it was found that the domestic market is generally in saturation. Therefore, a future research task will be to predict and analyze the demand for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment in consideration of the government’s policy changes.