논문 국내 국내전문학술지(KCI급) 국내 하이패스의 이용률과 보급률 및 보유차량의 중장기 수요예측 : 확산모형과 일본사례를 중심으로
- 학술지 구분 국내전문학술지(KCI급)
- 게재년월 2014-03
- 저자명 김태구공동(제1),홍정식
- 학술지명 한국경영공학회지
- 발행처명 한국경영공학회
- 발행국가 국내
- 논문언어 외국어
- 전체저자수 2
홈페이지논문 초록 (Abstract)
Hi-Pass, an electronic toll collection system in Korea has experienced constant growth for 13 years since its introduction. Though various studies has been undertaken on the characteristic and user behavior of Hi-Pass service, predicting its future trend has been rarely attempted. This paper focuses on the mid-to long term forecasting based on Bass diffusion model. To overcome the limitation of nonlinear least squares method relying solely on actual data series and gain reasonable forecasts based on various scenarios, we adopt the restricted nonlinear least squares method referring to Japanese market. Forecasts resulted from the analysis are expected to provide valuable guidelines for decision makers.