논문 국내 국내전문학술지(KCI급) NLS와 OLS의 하이브리드 방법에 의한 Bass 확산모형의 모수추정
- 학술지 구분 국내전문학술지(KCI급)
- 게재년월 2011-03
- 저자명 김태구공동(교신),홍정식,구훈영
- 학술지명 대한산업공학회지
- 발행처명 대한산업공학회
- 발행국가 국내
- 논문언어 외국어
- 전체저자수 3
홈페이지논문 초록 (Abstract)
The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it’s performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.