논문 국내 국제전문학술지(SCI급) Forecasting the Environmental Change of Technological Innovation System in South Korea in the COVID-19 Era
- 학술지 구분 국제전문학술지(SCI급)
- 게재년월 2020-08
- 저자명 권기석,김유빈,Soyeon Park
- 학술지명 Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
- 발행처명 아시아기술혁신학회
- 발행국가 국내
- 논문언어 외국어
- 전체저자수 3
홈페이지논문 초록 (Abstract)
Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea’s innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea’s technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The ‘regional growth’ scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the ‘regional conflicts’ scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.