논문 해외 국제전문학술지(SCI급) PREDICTING WHEN THE MASS MARKET STARTS TO DEVELOP: THE DUAL MARKET MODEL WITH DELAYED ENTRY
- 학술지 구분 국제전문학술지(SCI급)
- 게재년월 2016-07
- 저자명 김태구공동(제1),LEE, H (LEE, HAKYEON),HONG, JS (HONG, JUNG-SIK)
- 학술지명 IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS
- 발행처명 OXFORD UNIV PRESS
- 발행국가 해외
- 논문언어 외국어
- 전체저자수 3
홈페이지논문 초록 (Abstract)
The dual market phenomenon, in which a product's market is segmented into early and main markets, has attracted much attention in the field of innovation diffusion. It is known that main market adopters, also called the majority, begin to enter the market after a certain period, based on their levels of price sensitivity, which differ from those of early market adopters. This paper proposes a new dual market model that explicitly considers the delayed entry of the majority. We empirically estimate the delayed entry time (DET) for various consumer electronic products, comparing them with two other related phenomena of the early stages of diffusion: take-off and saddle. We also examine whether the DET of a new product can be predicted before it is reached. The result shows that the DET is predictable, using the coefficients of external and internal influence of the early market, also using those of the single market estimated from limited early data. The findings are managerially helpful because being aware of DET at an early stage enables managers to make timely decisions for serving the mass market