논문 해외 국제전문학술지(SCI급) EASY, RELIABLE METHOD FOR MID-TERM DEMAND FORECASTING BASED ON THE BASS MODEL: A HYBRID APPROACH OF NLS AND OLS
- 학술지 구분 국제전문학술지(SCI급)
- 게재년월 2016-01
- 저자명 김태구공동(참여)
- 학술지명 EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
- 발행처명 ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
- 발행국가 해외
- 논문언어 외국어
- 전체저자수 3
홈페이지논문 초록 (Abstract)
For mid-term demand forecasting, the accuracy, stability, and ease of use of the forecasting method are considered important user requirements. We propose a new forecasting method using linearization of the hazard rate formula of the Bass model. In the proposal, reduced non-linear least square method is used to determine the market potential estimate, after the estimates for the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation are obtained by using ordinary least square method with the new linearization of the Bass model. Validations of 29 real data sets and 36 simulation data sets show that the proposed method is accurate and stable. Considering the user requirements, our method could be suitable for mid-term forecasting based on the Bass model. It has high forecasting accuracy and superior stability, is easy to understand, and can be programmed using software such as MS Excel and Matlab